Asia Shrimp Market Update : May 13, 2016
Buying activity from USA & Canada is very strong at this time and has been for some weeks already. Major retailers and other end users are confirming programs for shipment through November.
Thailand has taken many orders over the past few weeks and expect strong competition for raw material supplies though Sep/Oct. Looks like Thailand prices have already bottomed out and are now moving up. Do not expect Thailand prices to move down before Q4, if at all. Post larvae supplies will likely not be enough to cover production demand.
Indonesia has been extremely active for many weeks now. Many large orders have been placed and raw material prices are starting to move up. Outlook for raw material supplies is uncertain but currently large sizes are in very short supply and some believe a lot of harvesting has occurred during April/May and supplies will be tighter going forward. Disease problems in some areas persist.
India raw material prices slightly dropped this week but do not see any long term trend in lower prices. New orders continue to be placed in India and raw material outlook is uncertain with disease and weather expected to impact production.
Vietnam production expected to be lower overall with impact from the drought playing a major role. Vietnam prices currently still above market levels. This year Vietnam will depend even more heavily on raw material supplies from India and to a lesser extent Indonesia.
China production expected to be down from last year. Hainan production is improved but farms around Zhanjiang are experiencing crop failures as a result of pollution, poor quality post larvae and ongoing disease issues. China will continue to be a major importer or shrimp from India, Indonesia and Vietnam as well as South America.
In summary, it looks like prices have already reached bottom. Expect prices to remain firm through at least August. Prices should move up between 10-15%.