Asian Shrimp Market Update : May 16, 2017
Thailand – Production is improving and shrimp suppliers expect it to continue to improve. Thailand should see 15-20% increase in production over 2016. Thailand will be the only game in town on small sizes this year i.e. EZP 61/70, CPTO 71/90 but there will also be significant quantities of EZP 8/12-13/15.
Vietnam – Production is improving over last year especially black tiger. However shrimp exporters will still need to import raw material from India and Indonesia. Vietnam production might be up 5-10% over last year.
Indonesia – Struggling with white feces, EHP and white spot diseases. A lot of crop failures but mitigated to some degree by increase farming areas. Shrimp suppliers say an unknown factor is what will happen with farms that were formally under the CP Prima umbrella. We believe best case for Indonesia is maintaining the same level of production as last year but might be a drop of 5-7%.
China – Expecting some improvement on production this year. There has been some improvement with disease control in some areas. Might see 5-10% improvement on production over last year however domestic consumption is strong and is expected to absorb any increases in production there. China will remain heavily dependent on imports from Asia and South/Central America.
India – Shrimp suppliers advise that increase in production areas is being mitigated by ongoing and ever increasing mortalities due to disease and weather. India production might increase marginally (3-7%) over last year. We do not expect big increase as many have previously predicted.
Bangladesh – Weather problems are affecting production.
In summation, from Asia we expect a marginal increase in production over 2016, i.e. 5-8% but markets are generally strong and consumption good so I do not see any major drops or increases in prices for this year. For the most part prices will be in a +/- 10% window.
