China shrimp harvest down perhaps 30 percent on typhoons, EMS : November 7, 2013
Eva Tallaksen – Undercurrent News
Jim Gulkin, director and founder of Southeast Asian Seafood exporter Siam Canadian, gave a dismal picture of the shrimp market. “It’s a disaster,” said Gulkin.
In China, there is no coordinated effort to tackle the issue, while in Thailand, he said, producers are no closer to a solution. “There is no light at the end of the tunnel. We are nowhere near where we thought we would be [in terms of forecasts].”
Thailand is now expected to drop to 240,000 to 270,000 metric tons this year, down from more than 500,000t in 2012. In China, production is expected to drop to less than 1.2 million tons for the first time since 2008, dropping more than 300,000t since 2011, according to World Bank/GAA forecasts (chart below).
Even with Indonesia increasing production, it will not be able to fill the gap, said Gulkin.
Farmers, he said, have taken some measures, such as reducing density, increasing fallowing, keeping shrimp longer in nurseries, and increasing control of the broodstock.
“We hope that by mid-2014, the situation will be at least going forward and improving. But we don’t expect any turnaround [by then]. If things go well, it will be two-three years for Thailand to recover.”
Where is the peak?
According to Lu, prices will remain high, as buyers especially in foodservice cannot reduce their orders.
However, buyers in the US are starting to notice resistance from end users, in both foodservice and retail, said Jim Gulkin, founder and director of Siam Canadian.
Next month will be critical as Thanksgiving comes up, Gulkin told Undercurrent.
In his view, prices could take a hit if sales in the holiday season prove to be really slow. However, in most likelihood, a drop will be temporary “because production is so tight”.
Source: Ragnar Tveteras, GOAL 2013 presentation