Thaifex 2016 blog : May 26, 2016
IntraFish reports on this year’s World of Seafood in Thailand — keep checking back for the latest news from the show floor.
Dominic Welling : INTRAFISH
Wednesday, May 25, 17.41 p.m. ICT
Shrimp prices moving up, EU market dull
The US shrimp market is strong this year, and after a slow first quarter — when buyers had a lot of inventory left over and purchasing was limited so prices went down — buying started again in late April which means prices are increasing from all major supply countries, Thailand, Indonesia, and India.
Prices from Thailand to the US are up around 10-20 cents per pound for the main species of easy peel and cooked, peeled, tail on (CPTO), said Jim Gulkin, managing director of Siam Canadian.
As an example 31/40 count easy peel shrimp is currently around $3.60 (€3.20) to $3.70 (€3.30) per pound up from around $3.40 (€3) to $3.50 (€3.10) a few weeks ago, he said.
The US economy is better, and therefore demand is increasing and people are freer to spend money.
India was the largest exporter to the US last year followed by Indonesia, but Thailand will have a larger share of the market this year, he said.
The EU market on the other had is still dull, due to currency impacts and the bad news in the overall economy meaning people are spending less.
Wednesday, May 25, 17.35 p.m. ICT
Global shrimp production down, but prices stay firm
Global shrimp production in 2016 will likely be a tad down compared with last year but this will help keep prices firm, according to Jim Gulkin, managing director at Siam Canadian.
The reason will be down mainly to supply drops in China and Vietnam and no growth in India and Indonesia.
“There is nothing in the pipeline to make up for the shortfall – it will likely be down around 5 percent, which will be enough to keep a floor on prices,” he said.
“I can’t see a price drop happening this year – they will not go down but if anything they will go up maybe 10-15 percent over the next few months then stable for the rest of the year.”
Any changes downwards will not be significant and will be temporary and short-lived, he said, nothing like what happened in 2013/2014.
Thailand is better this year – production is up and they have made very good progress, not quite eradicating, but controlling EMS. It also means they are now more capable of dealing with other diseases such as EHP and White Feces, he said.
Production this year should be around 270-290,000 metric tons – “300,000 metric tons at a push.”
According to Gulkin, the bottle neck in the system in Thailand is that the most successful broodstock or post larvae — in terms of better resistance to disease — is coming from CP Foods, and while there is a lot of demand there is no enough to cover the market.
Indonesia production will be fairly flat at 350,000 to 400,000 metric tons as the country is
starting to run into disease problems.
Likewise India, although there farming areas are increasing and there is interest, the country is also running into a few disease problems and production will be stable or plus or minus 5 percent.
Vietnam’s production will also be down due to drought and high salinity issues, and China is also struggling with production.