Thailand Shrimp Update : February 4, 2016
Thailand’s total shrimp production nationwide for 2015 is estimated at 230,000 MT. For 2016 predictions are between 260,000-300,000 MT.
There are several contributing factors to increase – Survival rate has significantly improved. EMS and other diseases are under better control and largely manageable. Post larvae are stronger and of higher quality.
However, Thailand is starting off 2016 slowly as raw material is currently short. Factors:
Shrimp price during October and November 2015 were at record lows for past 2 years and most farmers were not reseeding as a results. Secondly, late December and the beginning of 1st quarter are normally a low stocking period due to cool weather
Currently, most Thai packers are not making many new offers and concentrating on filling existing orders. Thailand shrimp prices have been moving up steadily on all sizes in since late December and raw material supplies are currently not sufficient to cover current contracts.
Estimated raw mat production in January 2016 was approx. 13,000 MT head on weight and Feb is expected to have on 10,000 MT. Thailand needs min 20,000 MT/month to cover existing orders.
On Tuesday, raw mat prices on all sizes moved up approx Baht 10/kg from last Friday.
Wednesday prices moved up further by Baht 6-8/kg on average. Factories pushing out last minute orders prior to Chinese New Year is the main factor here
We expect that supply will start improving on small sizes in March. We expect peak production season for 2016 to be May/June. What happens to prices then will depend on demand and supplies from other origins, i.e. Vietnam, India, Indonesia, China and South America.