Tilapia raw material prices are moving up in China : Sep 17, 2018
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Tilapia prices started moving up in July off a low in June and have continued to move up through August. Reason is not completely clear but seems most likely factor is that many China tilapia exporters have been rushing out shipments to USA several months earlier than contracted schedule to avoid potential duty that will be imposed on China imports into the USA. Many expect the duties to begin in October although there is no clear date set so this seems to be mostly speculation.
In addition, typhoons will be hitting Guangdong province, which is the biggest tilapia production area in China. If ponds are flooded or damaged, tilapia suppliers expect raw material prices to move up further. If damage incurred is significant, this will have a major impact on tilapia raw material supplies and tilapia exporters for the next 6 months.
If most China tilapia processors have their USA year end contracts shipped out by October, we may see a softening of tilapia raw material prices in November soften to a certain degree but likely still remain around RMB 8.80/kg (+/-). This is assuming no significant damage incurred from the typhoons.